Book review: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS

August 30, 2018

  

                                                                    ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐



                                                                   
"Doctors most commonly get mixed up between absence of evidence and evidence of absence"




Genre  Philosophy, Finance

Author  Nassim Nicolas Taleb

Pages    316

Year of Publish 2001

Other Books for Author The Black Swan


Summary of Fooled by Randomness

Although this book is not classified as self-helped books, not can come in handy in dealing with the crest and trough of life, for say get to know about the art of misallocating risk. Nassim Nicolas Table's "Fooled by Randomness" is a work for understanding how luck regulates our success or failures. It discusses three ideas precisely. 
1. "Randomness plays an important role in our life":, taking the example of a coin-flipping competition with one thousand people. With every result, near to half people are out of the game and after ten flips we get a winner. But when the same process is repeated, there are 1/1000 chances of the same guy winning. So we must not be fully dependent on randomness results.
2.  "Survivorship Bias": Taleb argues mild success decorated with hard work & skill,  but extreme success is more likely to be due to randomness. Taking the example of first American Idol winner "Kelly Clarkson", she had no idea how to lure the audience and judges, it was simply her instinct that was favorable during that moment. Had she came in later on the same platform, her chances of success may be less.
3. "Chance favors hard work & skill": Hardwork reduces the chances of randomness, as one becomes more aware of his surrounding, leading to more logical decisions and the chances of success increases.



Review of Fooled by Randomness


Assuming all the good qualities causing success. It cannot be interpreted that only hardworking, intelligent, preserving persons will get success. The other side is equally practical. The book questions the rule of thumb against its empirical validity.
Taleb argues wild success which is attributable to variance should not be compared with mild success which can be explained by skills and labor. Therefore, what comes with the help of luck can also be taken back by luck.
"The reader can see author unusual notion of alternative accounting: $10 million dollars earned through Russian Roulette does not have the same value as the same amount earned through a business. Although they are the same, they can fetch the same luxury, except that one's dependence on randomness is greater than the other. The real world is more vicious than Russian Roulette.
Firstly, It has a thousand chambers of a fatal bullet rather than six. so gamblers, investors & other decision-makers feel that what happened to others will not happen to them. Secondly, unlike the well-defined game of Russian Roulette, where risk is visible, people are unaware of the barrel of reality.

NOBODY ACCEPTS RANDOMNESS IN THEIR SUCCESS BUT ONLY IN THEIR FAILURE.

It is more of an initial foundation for the writer succeeding novels Black Swan. It challenges the reader, very niche idea and compels us to discover things happening without awareness thinking as randomness. In the end, Taleb quotes a statement by Jack Ma


"IF YOU ARE LUCKEY, HELP OTHERS. BECAUSE NOT every time YOU WILL BE LUCKEY, SO OTHERS WILL HELP YOU MAKING YOU LUCKEY FOREVER"















4 comments:

  1. Nicely written review with concrete ideas and validating examples. Looking to buy yhis book myself. Thanks for the suggestion!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nice tejash...good going keep it up ������

    ReplyDelete

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